Real-world distractions

[SudhanshuK453]

Teachers who switch careers are most likely to leave the teaching profession in their third year of teaching. A majority of teachers who remain in the profession for at least seven years stick with teaching for the remainder of their careers.
Which of the following conclusions can be drawn?
a) A majority of teachers who leave the profession do so within three years of beginning to teach
b) A teacher in his or her sixth year of teaching is more likely to remain in the profession than one who is in his or her third year of teaching.

Why is B wrong? We know that teachers are most likely to leave during third year. This question is from Manhattan CR.

[tim]

There is a difference between leaving the profession in year X and leaving eventually. If you need a numerical example, imagine that 60% of teachers in year 3 leave but the other 40% stay in the profession forever, but 30% of teachers in year 6 leave but ALL the rest of them leave in year 7.

[SudhanshuK453]

Doesn't the phrase 'most likely to leave during their third year' translate to most of them actually leave during the third year? If it does, then why is A wrong?

[tim]

No it doesn't. It just means more of them leave in that year than any other. In 2000, voters were MOST LIKELY to vote for Al Gore in the presidential election (more for him than any other candidate). That doesn't mean most voters voted for him.

[CarlosA945]

There is a difference between leaving the profession in year X and leaving eventually. If you need a numerical example, imagine that 60% of teachers in year 3 leave but the other 40% stay in the profession forever, but 30% of teachers in year 6 leave but ALL the rest of them leave in year 7.

Hi, thank you for such a helpful forum, I was reading through the CR guide and I came across this question, and I don't really understand why the answer B is wrong. I don't see, anywhere in the text, the eventually description. I agree that answer C seems to be "right" but answer B seems to be a better choice.

[RonPurewal]

with everything as given here, choice B is correct.

according to the given information, year #3 is when teachers are MOST likely to leave the profession. therefore, a teacher in any year after that has a greater probability of remaining in the profession -- regardless of exactly how "remaining in the profession" is defined (there's no need to delve into the specific meaning of "leave" or "eventually", as discussed above).

do you have a different version of the problem, with different choices?
...because you're talking about "choice C", and the user above has given only a choice A and a choice B.