Q17 - An editorial in the Grandburg

[catialuong]

Can someone please explain why answer choice B is wrong? It's very similar to the correct choice D. Why is D the better answer? Thank you.

[bbirdwell]

First, a li'l bidness -- see how I changed the title of your post? Please follow this format in future posts, it helps to keep us organized!

Now, for the argument:
Premise: 59% of eligible voters think the party will be out of power.

Conclusion: Voters would welcome the defeat of the party.

Clearly, there is a gap in this logic. Our answer will be a general rule that validates this logic and closes the gap. We can predict it will be something along the lines of "what the majority of voters think will happen, they welcome."

Do you see that? This kind of thinking will help tremendously on all Assumption Family questions like this one.

(D) says, in LSAT-language, exactly what we anticipated above. "voters who expect a possibility... are in favor of that possibility."

(B) doesn't cut it because it doesn't get to the heart of the conclusion: that voters WANT the party to lose.

Sound analysis up front will save you effort in the choices -- just by clearly recognizing the conclusion you can eliminate (B) immediately upon reading it.

[Shiggins]

I have a question on E. Is E wrong b/c it shows that if true the political party in control will be defeated and that is different from the people's thoughts on welcoming defeat for the current party.

[discipleship21]

I have a question on E. Is E wrong b/c it shows that if true the political party in control will be defeated and that is different from the people's thoughts on welcoming defeat for the current party.

I think the reason that (E) is wrong lies on elsewhere. If (E) were right, what if the other registered voters, who do not respond to that survey, all voted for that political party? Furthermore, (E) only says that the registered voters who respond to that survey will exercise their right to vote, not saying that they will exercise their right to vote corresponding to the opinion they exhibited.

[nflamel69]

B is wrong because the reasoning is reversed even though all the component is there. the argument should be the survey about future prospect of the party could be used to indicate the sentiment toward a political party. But B says exactly the reverse of that

[ManhattanPrepLSAT1]

For those of you who'd like to look at the incorrect answers:

(A) cannot be used as a principle to justify the conclusion, since we do not know how voters feel about the political party now in control. We only know that the voters think they will be ousted, but we do not know how they feel about the political party.
(B) reverses the logic. We know what voters think is the prospect of the party, but not the sentiment of the voters regarding that party.
(C) cannot be used as a principle to justify the conclusion since we are not aware of any increase in ill-feeling towards the political party now in control.
(E) fails to justify any conclusion about what voters want. This answer choice would have respondents likely to vote, but does not tell us how they would vote or what they would want. The only information we have is that 59% think the party will lose. Do all 59% then oppose the political party - not necessarily.

[donghai819]

I picked E, and now I think E is wrong because it has nothing to do with the argument. From the perspective of manhattan prep textbook, it is, if anything, a "premise debooster."

[burqin]

You are near to the correct. If answer B says "The results of surveys that gauge current voter's FUTURE PROSPECTS toward a given political party can legitimately be used as the basis for making claims about the voters' SENTIMENTS toward that political party", it will be correct. Actually, the survey is about the future prospects of the voters, instead of their sentiments.

[JorieB701]

Just curious if 59% is enough to say that they'd "generally" welcome the defeat..etc.?

It's obviously a most but does most = generally?

[ohthatpatrick]

most
generally
typically
usually
tends to
probably
likely
a majority

all these mean "more than 50%"

[VendelaG465]

I narrowed it down to A & D. I picked A originally but when finding out the gap in the argument on page 297 of the LR textbook I switched it to D last minute. What is the best solution if you're unable to see the gap in the argument? I got the core correct but honestly had I not known the gap I would have just stuck to choice A. I find it hard to pin point the exact gap the author is making because there can be so many assumptions made.

[ohthatpatrick]

On Principle questions, you should always be looking to create a Bridge idea that starts from language in the Premise and arrives and language in the Conclusion.

PREMISE:
59% of voters think the incumbent party will be out of power after the next election

CONCLUSION:
Most voters would welcome the defeat of the incumbent party


Does (A) travel from one to the other?
"the way voters feel about a political party" ... does that match the premise?

Kind of. The premise is just a prediction about whether the incumbents will / won't be in power. I don't know if I'd call that a feeling, unless you call any prediction a feeling.

"the way they will continue to feel about a party" ... does that match the conclusion?

It's better. The conclusion is about "WELCOMING the defeat", which is definitely referring to how people feel.

(A) basically says, "If you want them to be defeated now, you'll be glad they're defeated later".

That doesn't match, since the Premise wasn't about "wanting them to be defeated".

We need something like, "If you PREDICT something now, you'll WELCOME that prediction coming true later."


Does (D) travel from Prem to Conc?

"The proportion of voters who expect a possibility to be realized" ... does that match the premise?

Definitely. 59% expect the incumbents to be ousted.

"The proportion of voters who are in favor of that possibility" ... does that match the conclusion?

Definitely. Voters would GENERALLY (more than 50%) welcome the defeat of the incumbents.


Hope this helps.

[PepitoH577]

For those of you who'd like to look at the incorrect answers:

(A) cannot be used as a principle to justify the conclusion, since we do not know how voters feel about the political party now in control. We only know that the voters think they will be ousted, but we do not know how they feel about the political party.
(B) reverses the logic. We know what voters think is the prospect of the party, but not the sentiment of the voters regarding that party.
(C) cannot be used as a principle to justify the conclusion since we are not aware of any increase in ill-feeling towards the political party now in control.
(E) fails to justify any conclusion about what voters want. This answer choice would have respondents likely to vote, but does not tell us how they would vote or what they would want. The only information we have is that 59% think the party will lose. Do all 59% then oppose the political party - not necessarily.

Regarding C if the voters would welcome the defeat of the political party in charge that means that they aren't happy with them, right? So they will vote for the rival parties.
There is an increase in ill-feeling because before the majority liked the party that's why won an election but now they don't like it anymore . Furthermore, you cannot dislike a party but then vote for it. Why this is not a strong justification?

[LolaC289]

This question is easy as long as we don't reverse this argument.

The editorial says 59% voters think party X will lose. Thus it concludes voters generally welcome party X's defeat.
Basically they are saying: If you think something will happen, then you like to see that thing happen.

It's not necessarily true. Maybe I like Hillary, but I know many other people don't like her as I do, so I acknowledge she will probably lose the election although that's not the result I want.

So the principle we are looking for is prediction on Facts ——> Sentiment/Preference

(A) goes from Sentiment to Sentiment.
(B) goes from Fact to Fact.
(C) goes from Sentiment to Sentiment (to another party).
(D) goes from Fact to Sentiment and is thus our answer.
(E) goes from Fact to (realizing that) Fact

This is the easiest way I found to attack this question. Hope this helps.