by ohthatpatrick Mon May 29, 2017 9:32 pm
I think I’m able to understand this by applying the familiar themes of LSAT Causality.
When we’re evaluating whether X causes Y, we’re used to correct answers on Strengthen that basically say “When the cause is absent, the effect is absent”.
We used to correct answers on Weaken that show “the cause was present, but the effect was absent” or “the effect happened, even though the cause did not”.
(This match / mismatch between cause and effect is called Covariation, by the way)
Use specific examples in place of general terms, so that you can picture something in a more concrete way.
The author is saying, “How can we ever be sure that a certain political system (we’ll say ‘monarchy’) is brought about (caused) only by certain ecological/climatic factors (we’ll say ‘living in a cold area with lots of cliffs’)?”
We see that Transylvania has a monarchy, and it’s situated in a cold, cliff-filled area. But is the second thing the REASON for the first thing?
If I knew that there were no similarly structured societies not subject to those factors …. “there are no monarchies not subject to cold, cliff-filled areas” … “ALL monarchies are found in cold, cliff-filled areas”
If I knew that there are no societies, though subject to those factors, are not so structured …. “there are no non-monarchies in cold, cliff-filled areas” … “In all cold, cliff-filled areas, you ONLY find monarchies”
… I would be way more sure that cold/cliff areas CAUSE monarchies.