Q22

[clarafok]

Hello,

I had some trouble with this passage, I only got the last question right! I managed to figure out Q23 and Q25, but could someone please explain Q22 or Q24??? Did I overlook something or totally miss an inference??

thank you so much!!!

[bbirdwell]

Let's start with a paragraph by paragraph analysis. What are the main ideas of each of the paragraphs?

[clarafok]

ok let me give it a shot...

Paragraph 1
The paragraph introduces a recent study on why governments take gambles that are not theoretically justifiable based on costs and benefits. Apparently, a possible loss is more motivating than a prospected equivalent gain. Therefore, risk taking is a common strategy for people who think they will just lose whatever they already have, than those who want to win something they don't have.

Paragraph 2
Previously, economists believed that rational decision makers generally prefer risk-avoiding choices.They assumed that entrepreneurs and consumers will only make a risky choice if the expected return is high enough to compensate them for making that risk. It presents an example to illustrate this. However, the recent investigation (can be found in paragraph 1) shows that risks are preferred if there is a chance of losing nothing, even if this chance is small.

Paragraph 3
What is observed in the last sentence of paragraph 2 is quite striking to scholars of int'l conflict and crisis. An example is provided to demonstrate how nations take huge gambles to get what they see to have been taken from them by other nations. The author uses Britain and Argentina as an example to highlight this. So, in international affairs, each actor needs to understand the other actors' views of what is at stake.

[bbirdwell]

Great! One small detail -- the study in the first paragraph is not about governments. It's about people and decision-making and is of interest to those studying governments.

So when looking at Q22, country 1 takes something of value from country 2. The risk is moderate but tolerable. Using the summary you just wrote, which answer is best?

(A) country 1 is consistent with the old way

make a risky choice if the expected return is high enough to compensate them for making that risk

Bingo!

(B) no way. new research does not tell us which way certain countries actually consider things -- it tells us how they should consider things.

(C) nope. moderate losses vs. substantial wealth? new findings don't contradict that.

(D) no -- we know nothing about the motivation.

(E) "in the past?" no proof for this.

Q24
(A) "inaccurate information?" no.
(B) national = personal? yes! this is the whole idea of the passage, that studies in personal psychology are of interest to those studying governments. Governments and people are used interchangeably throughout the passage.
(C) "new method of predicting conflict?" no.
(D) "rational decision-making has severe consequences?!" no!
(E) nope -- this is not contrary to the previous assumptions.

Does that help?

[clarafok]

thanks!

i understand Q24 now, but i'm still a little confused with Q22

the question only says that the risk is moderate but tolerable, but nothing about compensation. was i supposed to assume 'great mineral wealth' as compensation?

thanks again!

[bbirdwell]

Yes. Compensation is being used here to mean "what you get when you take a risk and win."

[clarafok]

ahh i see

thanks!

[lhermary]

Can you go into more detail as why C is wrong? I thought the reasoning for C was stated on lines 10-12?

[einuoa]

The reason that I crossed out C was because I thought the in spite of surface appearances to the contrary part was a bit fishy, and I don't see it actually mentioned anywhere in the first paragraph. Lines 10-12 say that possible outcome perceived as loss motivates more strongly than the prospect of an equivalent gain; thus loss motivates more than gain, but answer C says that value of gain overriden by risks.

In the example, the country's value of gain isn't overriden by risks, because the country would be gaining more than they are risking, so answer A is correct.