by christine.defenbaugh Thu Sep 14, 2017 5:58 pm
I think the source of your confusion here is that you're not fully separating what you *know* (from the premises) from what you're trying to support (the unproven conclusion).
An additional example, like the blue jays, that connected sprinklers to the birds abandoning habitat (or 'loss of habitat'), would be awesome....IF we were trying to establish that the sprinklers were actually causing the birds to leave. But that's not what the argument seeks to prove.
We know the birds left the orchard trees. That's a fact. It seems pretty likely that it was because of the sprinklers, but honestly, I don't really care why they left. It could have been that a new predatory snake moved into the orchard, it would have the same essential result: the birds no longer have the orchards as part of their habitat.
What the author hasn't proven, and needs to, is that this particular loss of habitat is the cause of the ultimate effect -- population decline.
We could bolster this causation claim in a few ways - we could make it less likely there's an alternate cause *for the population decline*, or we could make it more likely that the loss of habitat itself more likely to cause that decline.
The correct answer does the latter here, making the loss of habitat that we already know occurred significant enough to be more likely to be a cause of population decline.
(As a side note - 'loss of habitat' doesn't necessarily mean the trees are gone, it just means the birds can't or won't live in them anymore. If I lose my home, it might be because it burned down, or it might be become it was foreclosed on, and the bank took it away from me. The house still exists, but I can't live there anymore.)